Commerce Signal | Monthly US Fulfillment Intelligence | Deposco
Commerce Signal
Real-time intelligence on US commerce
The Commerce Signal is Deposco's quarterly read on the health of US ecommerce fulfillment — sourced directly from order, inventory, and parcel data flowing through the Deposco platform. Every metric is derived from live operator activity across Deposco's network, aggregated, anonymized, and indexed for comparability. No survey panels. No model assumptions. The signal is the data.
Deposco Commerce Signal data is based on aggregated, anonymized activity across customers using the Deposco Bright Suite platform. All data presented is approximate, and based on internal methodologies that may evolve over time. All figures are in USD and reflect both online and offline retail activity supported by the Deposco platform.
Network Intelligence
Shipping costs grew at their fastest pace since COVID.
Shipping costs rose 12.8% year over year in Q2, driven by diesel fuel prices and tightening capacity. A challenging environment just got more difficult.
- INV DOH: 89 days
- INV TURNS: 4.1×
- y/y GMV Growth: +13.4%
- y/y PARCEL PRICE Growth: +12.8%
What this means for you
Costs accelerate. CFOs reprice. Ops reallocate.
The gap between what you budgeted versus what you will pay widens every week it goes unaddressed. The choice is between repricing against known data today or against peak spot rates in October.
The typical operator carries 5.9 fewer days of inventory than this point last year.
If your buffer moved with the network's, you likely have less room than your peak plan assumes. Audit your peak season buy plan against current inventory levels and lock carrier rates before the surcharge schedules publish.
Three Moves This Quarter
- Cost: lock carrier rates this week.
- Demand: build your Q3 plan on the quarter's close, not its peak.
- Inventory: pressure-test your peak coverage against unit demand.
Market overview
Costs outrun prices at both ends
The typical operator paid 6% more for goods this quarter and 12.8% more to ship them, while charging 5.6% more per order. Consumer prices rose 3.9%. The BLS Producer Price Index climbed from 275.9 to 292.5 between March and May 2026, a 6% move upstream of everything the network ships.
The consumer picture
Consumer Sentiment fell 16% over two months. Sentiment at 44.8 is a demand signal, not a coincidence — GMV growth slowed four straight weeks into quarter close.
Pro tip: Stress-test your peak plan on two clocks. The inventory window closes next, when supplier lead times exceed the runway to peak.
The calls
Four Q3 2026 calls.
| Metric | Direction | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parcel Inflation | ↑ Rising | High | Open · Q3 2026 |
| GMV Growth | → Holding | Moderate | Open · Q3 2026 |
| Inventory DOH | → Holding | High | Open · Q3 2026 |
| Inventory Turns | → Holding | Moderate | Open · Q3 2026 |
Segment intelligence
Brands cut 10.6 days, 3PL were already there.
- Moving average inventory days on hand (DOH): 89.3 days for the network, down 5.9 days year over year.
- Brands: Closed at 89.2 days, cutting 10.6 days of inventory.
- 3PLs: Finished at 85.9 days, holding their inventory level flat.
Peak Season Preparedness
The window to prepare for peak is closing
Lock carrier rates before the surcharge schedule publishes. Replan Q3 replenishment before lead times close the window.
Prediction Lookback
Every call goes on record.
This is the inaugural issue of the Commerce Signal. The four calls in this issue are open Q3 2026 directional calls. Confidence labels reflect signal quality in the underlying data.
Commerce Signal